Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Tunisia
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Egypt
  • Namibia
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Ethiopia
  • Togo
  • Kenya

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $912,477$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{748,158.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 130.1)}}\) (asimptote \(748,158.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,539$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,568.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.2)}}\) (asimptote \(21,568.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100,156$ on 2020-12-19

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $119,151$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,282.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 235.9)}}\) (asimptote \(124,282.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,126$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,506.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 238.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,506.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,141$ on 2020-12-19

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,567$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,879.5}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 204.0)}}\) (asimptote \(13,879.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $111$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 189.5)}}\) (asimptote \(128.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $241$ on 2020-12-19

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,772$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,754.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 205.3)}}\) (asimptote \(101,754.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,346$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,503.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 202.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,503.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,540$ on 2020-12-19

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $415,226$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{620,463.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 249.4)}}\) (asimptote \(620,463.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,909$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,513.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 246.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,513.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,694$ on 2020-12-19

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $124,891$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,139.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 100.9)}}\) (asimptote \(108,139.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,069$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,373.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 107.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,373.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,341$ on 2020-12-19

Namibia⮸

Population $2,540,905$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,437$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,690.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 169.3)}}\) (asimptote \(14,690.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $171$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(144.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,417$ on 2020-12-19

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,397$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,900.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 102.5)}}\) (asimptote \(11,900.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $369$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{328.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 112.7)}}\) (asimptote \(328.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,718$ on 2020-12-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Ethiopia recovered 66%
Togo recovered 52%
Kenya recovered 40%
Morocco recovered 34%

Ethiopia⮸

Population $114,963,588$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $119,494$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,975.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 142.3)}}\) (asimptote \(113,975.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,846$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,759.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 100.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,759.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,495$ on 2020-12-19

Togo⮸

Population $8,278,724$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,396$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,772.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 225.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,772.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87.2}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 188.4)}}\) (asimptote \(87.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $356$ on 2020-12-19

Kenya⮸

Population $53,771,296$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $94,151$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,583.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 254.0)}}\) (asimptote \(175,583.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,633$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,852.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 239.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,852.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,959$ on 2020-12-19